GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Wed Apr 16, 2025
This is Alex Marienthal with the avalanche forecast on Wednesday, April 16th, at 7:00 a.m. sponsored by Yellowstone Ski Tours and BWAGs. This forecast does not apply to operating ski areas.
This morning temperatures are in the 30s F. Yesterday temperatures reached low 40s to mid-50s F. Wind has been out of the southwest, west and northwest at 5-25 mph with gusts of 25-35 mph. There is no new snow.
Today, temperatures will reach 40-50 F with increasing cloud cover. Wind will start from the west and southwest at 5-15 mph with gusts of 20-30 mph. This afternoon and tonight the wind will increase and shift to the north and northeast. Some rain and thunder are possible this afternoon with snow expected in the mountains tonight through Friday morning.
By morning, 4-8” of new snow is possible near Bozeman, Big Sky and Cooke City with 1-2” near West Yellowstone and Island Park. By Friday morning 1-2 feet are possible in the mountains near Bozeman and Cooke City with at least 8-12” in most areas.
All Regions
The main avalanche concern today is wet loose avalanches. Temperatures did not drop to freezing in many areas overnight, so the snowpack will have a thin refrozen crust only an inch or two thick at most, if at all. Any crusts will melt quickly with sunshine and warm temperatures before clouds move in this afternoon, and it will be possible to trigger wet loose avalanches on steep slopes, especially those that receive direct sunshine. Natural avalanches might initiate near rock outcrops on steep, sunny slopes.
Without a good refreeze overnight there is potential for some larger wet loose avalanches. Even small avalanches will pose a threat where they can push you over cliffs, into rocks, or carry you down a long steep slope.
Assess the snow surface for wet snow instabilities, and plan to be off and out from under steep, sunny slopes before the sunshine further weakens the snow surface. Any rain this afternoon could also further weaken the snow surface. If you plan to travel on steep slopes, look for shadier slopes with a thicker refrozen crust or dry snow. Sinking past your ankle in wet snow, or seeing rollerballs, pinwheels or natural avalanches means it is time to find lower angle terrain or slopes with a colder, dry or refrozen snow surface.
Near Cooke City, you may encounter isolated unstable wind drifts on upper elevation slopes where snow surfaces remain soft and dry.
Also, be cautious on slopes below large overhanging cornices and give cornices space while traveling on ridgelines above, as they have become weak and easier to break from the heat and sunshine.
The main concern are wet snow avalanches on sun-exposed slopes where a few large avalanches are possible. Assess the snow surface for wet snow instabilities and isolated drifts, especially in steep consequential terrain. The avalanche danger is MODERATE.
If you encounter an error with our observation submission platform, please email your observations to mtavalanche@gmail.com
Hyalite Road Closure
The Hyalite Canyon Road is closed to ALL MOTORIZED VEHICLES until May 16. This is a regular annual road closure to reduce road damage during the spring thaw. Bicycle and foot traffic are allowed. Contact the Bozeman FS Ranger District for more info.
Bridger Bowl Ski Area is closed for the season, and uphill travel is allowed. Please give employees and machinery plenty of room as they work to clean up from the season. Backcountry conditions will develop as spring storms impact the range. There are no ski patrol services, avalanche mitigation or terrain closures as conditions evolve. Call 911 for any incidents requiring outside assistance.
Our last daily avalanche forecast will be Sunday, April 20th. We will issue updates on Mondays and Fridays through the end of April.